The victories of Anora at the Directors’ and Producers’ Guilds, along with the Critics’ Choice, have positioned Sean Baker’s production as the frontrunner for the 2025 Academy Award for Best Picture.

The question now is who can threaten the Neon film among the other nine finalists in the category.

In this new video from Cine Set, I analyze the race for the coveted prize on March 2nd.

NICKEL BOYS AND DUNE 2: NO CHANCE

With just over three weeks left until the 2025 Oscars, I consider that two films have no chance.

Nickel Boys is one of them: RaMell Ross’s drama may be well-received within the U.S. independent circuit, with excellent reception at second-half festivals and lots of critical praise. However, being nominated for Best Picture was the film’s greatest achievement, as it had a real risk of being left out.

Dune 2 remained in the race, despite not being Hollywood’s most beloved franchise. Its absence in the main categories, such as Director and Adapted Screenplay, along with its underperformance in the technical categories, shows how the sequel failed to generate excitement.

EMILIA PÉREZ AND THE SUBSTANCE: MINIMAL CHANCES

For different reasons, Emília Pérez and The Substance have minimal chances of winning Best Picture. Beyond the natural difficulty for a musical to perform well in a preferential ballot, the Netflix production faltered due to the controversies surrounding Karla Sofia Gascón. Even the Latin buzz was picked up by the U.S. press. Only a miracle could turn things around.

Although The Substance has a good chance of winning Best Original Screenplay and Demi Moore is likely to win Best Actress, it seems distant for The Substance to win Best Picture. Of course, its themes about aesthetic pressure and ageism resonate deeply in Hollywood, and Coralie Fargeat’s horror film was well-received at festivals and box offices around the world, but I believe it will struggle to gather the necessary convergence to please the more than 10,000 Academy voters. It would be amazing if it happened, but it’s highly unlikely.

WICKED AND I´M STILL HERE: LOW CHANCES

Wicked undeniably has Hollywood’s affection and may win Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards, an important sign that the actors’ branch of the Academy is on its side. The musical’s ability to connect with voters of all ages and its prestige both in cinema and on stage helps. Additionally, awarding the film would be a nod to the audience since it was the third highest-grossing film of the year.

However, I don’t feel the more international sectors and those focused on independent cinema would favor Wicked. Furthermore, the sequel may compete in 2026. Awarding the first film could compromise next year’s chances if the sequel is even better. I believe that if the Academy awards the musical, it will happen in the next season.

I believe I´m Still Here is in the fifth position in this race. The Brazilian contender continues to rise, gaining more ground in the season, especially with its expansion in the North American and European circuits. It has become the film to watch in this final stretch.

The downfall of Emília Pérez, with its real chance of winning Best International Feature, could place it ahead of the French musical, a significant achievement at this stage. Additionally, it has the most classic structure among films like Conclave and A Complete Stranger, and features a highly praised performance by Fernanda Torres.

A COMPLETE UNKNOWN AND THE BRUTALIST: GOOD CHANCES

However, we can’t forget the resistance Americans have towards subtitled films. The absence of nominations in major Oscar precursors – Bafta, SAG, PGA, DGA – and the lack of a nomination in Adapted Screenplay at least, make things very difficult for Still Here. If it wins Best Picture without those nominations, it would almost be an admission that the Academy discovered the film at the last minute and left it with fewer nominations than it deserved. It’s an unlikely result, but not impossible.

Now, let’s discuss the three films that have the best chances of challenging Anora.

A Complete Unknown ranks fourth. Even without being a beloved film, James Mangold’s movie is a candidate that could perform well on the preferential list. After all, it tells the story of a living legend like Bob Dylan, with an excellent cast nominated in three categories, direction, and screenplay also in the running, plus impeccable technical work.

The 2010s brought many good films, but none brilliant, with a recipe capable of pleasing everyone – The Artist, Argo, and The Shape of Water are clear examples. The Academy, however, has transformed over the last few years, and perhaps international branches might not be as convinced to vote for A Complete Unknown.

Although it’s not a full biopic, as it only portrays a period in Bob Dylan’s life, the Oscar recently awarded a genre film a massive victory – Oppenheimer. So, the Academy might want to take a different path this season.

The third position goes to The Brutalist. While Brady Corbet’s epic and ambitious style is undeniable, its theme is highly relevant for today’s world, and Adrien Brody is heading toward his second Oscar, the film’s four-hour length presents a massive barrier. The information that many voters only watched half the film during the nomination period highlights the challenge ahead.

Of course, many remember Oppenheimer, but Christopher Nolan’s pacing is very different from Corbet’s more classical style. I consider The Brutalist could secure many first-place votes, but also many low positions in the preferential voting system. That’s fatal for those fighting for Best Picture.

CONCLAVE: BIG CHANCES

Conclave is the biggest threat to Anora at the 2025 Oscars. Majestic in technique with a classic yet provocative theme, Focus Features’ drama is that suspense film with a great cast and relevant subject matter. It’s a strong contender for Adapted Screenplay, a category recently won by Coda, Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave, and Argo.

This could help make up for Edward Berger’s snub in Best Direction. Conclave could still achieve major victories, like at the Baftas, where it leads nominations, and at the SAG Awards for Best Ensemble.

As I’ve been saying for months, Conclave is very similar to Spotlight, a film that wasn’t brilliant but had everything in place to win. I have no doubt that it will score very well in the Oscar preferential voting system – possibly even more than Anora, which might be more divisive.

The question is whether an Academy with such a strong inclusion and diversity discourse would award, for the second consecutive year, a film dominated by men, with only one prominent woman in the cast.